Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.]

GENS [1 Deg.]

The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) started the GEFS to address the nature of uncertainty in weather observations, which are used to initialize weather forecast models. The proverbial butterfly flapping her wings can have a cascading effect leading to wind gusts thousands of miles away. This extreme example illustrates that tiny, unnoticeable differences between reality and what is actually measured can, over time, lead to noticeable differences between what a weather model forecast predicts and reality itself. The GEFS attempts to quantify the amount of uncertainty in a forecast by generating an ensemble of multiple forecasts, each minutely different, or perturbed, from the original observations. With global coverage, GEFS is produced four times a day with weather forecasts going out to 16 days and a 6 hour temporal resolution. This dataset has 1.0 degree horizontal resolution.
Cite this dataset when used as a source.
  • NCEI DSI 6177
  • gov.noaa.ncdc:C00691
Download Data
Distribution Formats
  • GRIB 2 (Version: 2)
    • File Specification: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/docs/grib2/
    • File Compression:
Distributor Customer Engagement Branch
DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI > National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
1-828-271-4800
ncei.orders@noaa.gov
Dataset Point of Contact Customer Engagement Branch
DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI > National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
1-828-271-4800
ncei.orders@noaa.gov
Dataset Point of Contact DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI > National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
nomads.ncdc@noaa.gov
Coverage Description
Time Period 2007-10-01 to Present
Spatial Bounding Box Coordinates
N: 90.0
S: -90.0
E: 180.0
W: -180.0
Spatial Coverage Map
General Documentation
Publication Dates
  • publication: 2007-10-01
Data Presentation Form Digital model - multi-dimensional digital representation of a feature, process, etc.
Dataset Progress Status Ongoing - data is continually being updated
Data Update Frequency Daily
Purpose Quantify the amount of uncertainty in mesoscale guidance by generating an ensemble of multiple forecasts, each minutely different, or perturbed, from the original observations.
Cited Authors
  • DOC/NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC > Environmental Modeling Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Weather Service, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
Originators
  • DOC/NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC > Environmental Modeling Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Weather Service, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
Distributors
  • DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI > National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
Publishers
  • DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI > National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
Theme keywords Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Science Keywords
  • Atmosphere > Altitude > Geopotential Height
  • Atmosphere > Altitude > Planetary Boundary Layer Height
  • Atmosphere > Altitude > Tropopause
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Pressure > Atmospheric Pressure Measurements
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Pressure > Pressure Thickness
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Pressure > Sea Level Pressure
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Pressure > Surface Pressure
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Pressure > Albedo
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Pressure > Land Cover
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Pressure > Soil Moisture/Water Content
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Pressure > Soil Temperature
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Pressure > Sea Surface Temperature
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Radiation > Albedo
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Radiation > Heat Flux
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Radiation > Incoming Solar Radiation
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Radiation > Longwave Radiation
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Radiation > Outgoing Longwave Radiation
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Radiation > Radiative Flux
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Radiation > Shortwave Radiation
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Radiation > Solar Radiation
  • Earth Science > Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Surface Temperature > Air Temperature
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Atmospheric Stability
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Boundary Layer Temperature
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Dew Point Temperature
  • Earth Science > Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Surface Temperature > Maximum/Minimum Temperature
  • Earth Science > Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Surface Temperature > Potential Temperature
  • Earth Science > Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Surface Temperature > Skin Temperature
  • Earth Science > Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Surface Temperature
  • Earth Science > Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Upper Air Temperature
  • Earth Science > Atmosphere > Atmospheric Water Vapor > Water Vapor Indicators > Dew Point Temperature
  • Earth Science > Atmosphere > Atmospheric Water Vapor > Water Vapor Processes > Evaporation
  • Earth Science > Atmosphere > Atmospheric Water Vapor > Water Vapor Indicators > Humidity
  • Earth Science > Atmosphere > Atmospheric Water Vapor > Water Vapor Indicators > Total Precipitable Water
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Water Vapor > Water Vapor
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Water Vapor > Water Vapor Profiles
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Winds > Boundary Layer Winds
  • Earth Science > Atmosphere > Atmospheric Winds > Wind Dynamics > Convection
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Winds > Surface Winds
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Winds > Upper Level Winds
  • Earth Science > Atmosphere > Atmospheric Winds > Wind Dynamics > Vertical Wind Velocity/Speed
  • Earth Science > Atmosphere > Atmospheric Winds > Wind Dynamics > Vorticity
  • Atmosphere > Atmospheric Winds > Wind Profiles
  • Earth Science > Atmosphere > Atmospheric Winds > Wind Dynamics > Wind Shear
  • Earth Science > Atmosphere > Precipitation > Liquid Precipitation > Rain > Freezing Rain
  • Atmosphere > Precipitation > Precipitation Amount
  • Atmosphere > Precipitation > Precipitation Rate
  • Earth Science > Atmosphere > Precipitation > Liquid Precipitation > Rain
  • Earth Science > Atmosphere > Precipitation > Solid Precipitation > Ice Pellets > Sleet
  • Earth Science > Atmosphere > Precipitation > Solid Precipitation > Snow
  • Atmosphere > Air Quality > Tropospheric Ozone
  • Terrestrial Hydrosphere > Snow/Ice > Albedo
  • Terrestrial Hydrosphere > Snow/Ice > Snow Cover
  • Terrestrial Hydrosphere > Snow/Ice > Snow Depth
  • Terrestrial Hydrosphere > Snow/Ice > Snow Water Equivalent
  • Oceans > Sea Ice > Sea Ice Concentration
  • Earth Science > Land Surface > Surface Radiative Properties > Albedo
  • Earth Science > Land Surface > Land Use/Land Cover > Land Use/Land Cover Classification > Vegetation Index
  • Land Surface > Soils > Soil Moisture/Water Content
  • Land Surface > Soils > Soil Temperature
  • Oceans > Ocean Temperature > Sea Surface Temperature
Data Center keywords Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Data Center Keywords
  • DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC > National Climatic Data Center, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
  • DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI > National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
Place keywords Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Location Keywords
  • Geographic Region > Global
Project keywords Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Project Keywords
  • NOMADS > The NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System
Data Resolution keywords Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Horizontal Data Resolution Keywords
  • 100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees
Stratum keywords Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Location Keywords
  • Vertical Location > Boundary Layer
  • Vertical Location > Land Surface
  • Vertical Location > Sea Surface
  • Vertical Location > Troposphere
  • Vertical Location > Stratosphere
Use Constraints No constraint information available
Fees
  • In most cases, electronic downloads of the data are free, however fees may apply for data certifications, copies of analog materials, and data distribution on physical media.
Lineage information for: repository
Processing Steps
  • 2015-04-22T00:00:00 - NOAA created the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) by merging NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC), and National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC), including the National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC), per the Consolidated and Further Continuing Appropriations Act, 2015, Public Law 113-235. NCEI launched publicly on April 22, 2015.
Last Modified: 2018-05-25
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