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Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [2.5 Deg.]


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            title:  Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [2.5 Deg.]
            alternateTitle:  GENS [2.5 Deg.]
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                date:  2007-10-01
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                code:  NCEI DSI 6178
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                code:  gov.noaa.ncdc:C00692
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                        name:  EMC GEFS Web Site
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        abstract:  The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) started the GEFS to address the nature of uncertainty in weather observations, which are used to initialize weather forecast models. The proverbial butterfly flapping her wings can have a cascading effect leading to wind gusts thousands of miles away. This extreme example illustrates that tiny, unnoticeable differences between reality and what is actually measured can, over time, lead to noticeable differences between what a weather model forecast predicts and reality itself. The GEFS attempts to quantify the amount of uncertainty in a forecast by generating an ensemble of multiple forecasts, each minutely different, or perturbed, from the original observations. With global coverage, GEFS is produced four times a day with weather forecasts going out to 16 days and a 6 hour temporal resolution. This dataset has 2.5 degree horizontal resolution.
        purpose:  Quantify the amount of uncertainty in mesoscale guidance by generating an ensemble of multiple forecasts, each minutely different, or perturbed, from the original observations.
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            levelDescription:  (MD_ScopeDescription)
                other:  NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
        lineage:  (LI_Lineage)
            processStep:  (LE_ProcessStep)
                description:  NOAA created the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) by merging NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC), and National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC), including the National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC), per the Consolidated and Further Continuing Appropriations Act, 2015, Public Law 113-235. NCEI launched publicly on April 22, 2015.
                dateTime:
                  DateTime:  2015-04-22T00:00:00
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    metadataMaintenance:  (MD_MaintenanceInformation)
        maintenanceAndUpdateFrequency:  (MD_MaintenanceFrequencyCode) asNeeded
        maintenanceNote:  Bulk metadata change applied on 2023-06-23. See version control repository history for metadata change details.